The telecom industry stands on the brink of a transformative epoch, a confluence of visionary technology and unparalleled user demand for experiences that is reshaping the very fabric of connectivity. Below, we will traverse the spectrum of nature of traffic, mobile, experiences, delivery mechanisms, ecosystems, and tech trends, each a beacon of the telecom renaissance. Video and AI applications are revolutionising traffic and mobile spaces, respectively, heralding a future of uninterrupted, intelligent interactions. The experience is being reshaped by multi-faceted platforms, delivering a cornucopia of services from OTT to gaming. In delivery, 5G stands tall, a harbinger of autonomous workflows and shape-shifting networks. The ecosystem will thrive on innovative business models and API contracts, while tech trends like satellite and cyber security are gearing up to fortify and expand the horizons of connectivity. This narrative isn't just about predicting the future; it's about crafting it with each technological stride, catapulting user experiences into a realm of boundless possibilities.
#1: The power of AI will create a paradigm shift in content capability, catalyse innovation and create revenue issues for telcos.
- A continued shift to data and apps – particularly short videos – will see exponential growth. Traditional voice calls will decrease in developed markets but will continue to be important in developing markets, particularly in Africa where voice and SMS still play an important role. Despite there already being too many apps, the number will continue to rise. People want constant new experiences so there will be a huge amount of innovation in terms of what consumers can do in-app.
- In 2024 we will see a significant percentage of mobile phones with AI chips. This additional intelligence will bring a lot more in-app capabilities. Higher content processing can happen within the mobile including content generation leading to a change in how the network will be used. Large Language Models (LLMs) will bring world knowledge to the phone and hence the need to go into the network can reduce. This will cause revenue issues for telcos as the value moves to the app, so telcos will be diversifying and developing more of their own apps to keep control of the consumer experience and revenue. This in turn will lead to a lot more focus on measuring telco apps for customer experience, for example: how many users, traction, monetisation, etc. And this user experience will only get better as LLMs replace apps, and developers democratise that.
#2: Usability has democratised the smartphone and accelerated inclusivity, with increased processing power delivering autonomous capability and protecting privacy.
- Devices will move towards becoming robotic agents. An increasing number of mobile devices are being shipped with AI chips, and this will change how we think about our mobile phone. These phones are capable of running LLMs in the phone that can be used to generate a plethora of content and experiences. Autonomous AI Agents is one of the most accelerating areas in LLMs where the agent can do tasks autonomously to meet an objective or intent. At the moment, the user is largely controlling what happens in the phone, but with autonomous agents a lot of processes and actions will happen automatically. From human calling human, we have moved to humans interacting with machines – IVR, chatbots, virtual assistants etc., – now it will be two agents / AI devices communicating with each other to achieve outcomes, and associated new datasets emerging.
- Anyone and everyone can use a smartphone. With the advent of LLMs, interactions on the mobile will become more and more conversational, and putting this capability together with interactive and intuitive touch screens means anyone and everyone can use a smartphone. This will have a hugely positive impact on inclusivity, as well as catalysing a huge explosion in use cases and experiences.
- A significant positive impact around privacy issues, as processing power within the mobile increases. For example, using a health app today means the user data is sent to the cloud to be processed before sending the resulting information back to the user. With a super-powerful AI chip running a LLM, processing can be done within the phone – no information is sent to the cloud, so the user’s privacy is protected.
#3: New business models enabled by 5G, AI integration and the continued high cost of handsets will give operators opportunities to diversify and create new partnerships in an extended ecosystem.
- Telcos will be exploring a multitude of use cases – movie streaming, gaming, enterprise-specific use cases – attempting to diversify as to what a ‘telco’ stands for and in which use cases they want to be involved. 5G use cases have not delivered much yet so a lot of telcos are doubling down on this and we will see an increasing number of conversations on how to enable 5G use cases. There will be strong focus on the enterprise segment – 5G, private 5G networks, and rolling out fixed wireless access points. There will be a lot of sub trends within this including API as contracts becoming increasingly pervasive, leading to a shift in billing, settlements, contracting etc.
- A focus on specific use cases more relevant to developing markets. Telcos play a big role in fintech, mobile money, mobile wallets – many significant transactions go through this physical channel and there will be a lot of activity happening around monetising that. The combination of traditional telco data with payment and fintech data will create new business models including micro credits and advance credits if roaming, underpinned by the use of AI in customer profiling to determine credit risk.
- Telcos and resellers will look at device refinancing schemes. With AI chipsets, mobiles will continue to be expensive, and while telcos have largely been resilient to the economic slowdown, this will have an impact on telcos who rely on a large number of handset sales. We will see telcos and resellers looking at device refinancing schemes for customers, to mitigate the impact of high handset prices.
#4: As 5G SA reaches critical mass and edge computing comes to the fore, there will be a redistribution of network assets to underpin new use cases.
- The way the data flows in the network will start shifting as mobile devices become more powerful edge computing devices. In the past year there has been a big shift to personalisation / hyper personalisation of content and self-generated content. This will have ramifications as to how this will play out on the network side. The orchestration of workflows and systems will deliver intent-driven networks, dictated by user needs rather than the fixed way data flows now. With more network workloads moving to the cloud one can start imagining “shape shifting” networks. An additional layer of user experiences-led demand will come from AR / VR applications with high profile roll outs including Apple Vision Pro. Metaverse progress will continue and the answers to the question as to what connected systems will look like will start getting defined with mobiles, smart watches, goggles etc., competing for attention and connectivity.
- The big issue is to deliver the promise of 5G to customers, moving from 5G NSA to 5G SA. The number of 5G SA networks is increasing globally. We see 2024 as the year when this number reaches critical mass for enterprise use cases to start playing out. The investments here will also demand further attention to the topic of sustainability led growth.
- Networks need to enable experiences at the edge, as AI chips enable people to do more on their mobile phones. Today most networks are centralised in terms of infrastructure and cloud computing – in 2024 a lot of capability will have to move to the edge if the user experience is to be high quality. A number of technologies will emerge to enable this, as well as a redistribution of network assets. Penetration of cloud computing will continue to increase but its negative impact on the bottom-line will also be felt leading to a mixed year for this aspect.
- Satellite based mobile connectivity will start entering the fray. In the theatre of global connectivity, satellites are emerging not merely as actors but as potential directors, orchestrating a network that could one day eclipse traditional telecom infrastructure.
#5: 2024 will be the year when subscription fraud could explode – there will be a corresponding need for more secure technologies that can strengthen networks and services.
- Subscription fraud will come to the fore. With AI-driven agents in the hands of everyone with a smartphone, there will be wide opportunity for malicious manipulation, so fraud scenarios may become explosive in terms of AI agent fraud and in subscription, as a lot of use cases are driven primarily by subscription models. Fraud follows money and money is increasingly digital and a subscription led model. 2024 will be the year when subscription fraud comes to the fore and we need to do a lot to mitigate that by using powerful AI to predict, prevent and manage.
- The strength of cybersecurity protection will become even more critical, as enterprise use cases roll out. There will be more security and fraud risk, so there will be a corresponding need for more secure technologies that can strengthen networks and services. Telcos are not network security experts so they will increasingly partner with organisations that can offer solutions. This will become a key investment and attention point, to ensure the security of whatever experiences services will be rolled out.
