According to the Ericsson Mobility Report from November 2023, there was an estimated 1.6 billion global 5G mobile subscriptions by the end of the year. From 2022 to 2023, we have seen an increase in 5G mid-band population coverage from 10% to 30% (outside mainland China). And by the end of 2029, global data traffic consumption per smartphone is expected to reach 56 GB per month.
These numbers and forecasts are a fascinating way to quantify just how far we’ve come in the history of wireless technology achievements, which have witnessed tremendous evolution and change in cellular standards over the past 45 years.
Where cellular standards have been
We’d argue that this progress started in 1979, when 1G technology using analog transmission techniques for the transmission of voice-only signals was launched in Japan by NTT. While much has changed, the development of cellular standards saw the beginning of the never-ending race for the increase of data speed and data capacity.
This voice-only standard used a frequency-division multiple access (FDMA) technique where voice calls were modulated to a higher frequency of approximately 150 MHz and greater as they were transmitted between radio towers.
- 2G wireless telephone technology: Available in the 1990s, this technology enabled the first low bitrate data services by using techniques such as time-division multiple access (TDMA) and spread-spectrum code-division multiple access (CDMA). The 2G systems offered higher spectral efficiency, the first data services, and advanced roaming. Memorably, this was also the first time a single unified standard was provided: the global system for mobile communications (GSM).
- 2.5G wireless telephone technology: General packet radio service (GPRS) and wireless application protocol (WAP) technologies were added to existing GSM systems to create 2.5G technology, offering theoretical data rates of up to 384 kbps.
- 3G wireless telephone technology: In December 1998, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), known as the “Organizational Partners,” was founded. NTT DoCoMo launched the first commercial 3G network based on W-CDMA technology in 2001 that enabled higher data speeds and features like High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) that provided data transmission capabilities delivering speeds up to 14.4 Mbps on the downlink and 5.8 Mbps on the uplink.
- Long-Term Evolution (LTE) standard: In 2009, this standard was introduced that used a new air interface based on the orthogonal frequency-division multiple access (OFDMA) digital modulation method.
Where do 5G standards stand today?
At present, there are a total of 63 Fifth-Generation New Radio (5G NR) frequency bands, with allocations from 612 MHz to 7,125 MHz (a substantial expansion from already existing 54 LTE bands) to support global roaming and higher data speed needs.
But does this mean that wireless standards have finally managed to reach our needs? Was the 5G standard capable of delivering the promised growth? Questions that are all the more pressing when you consider that five years from now, Ericsson predicts that 58% of all mobile subscriptions will be 5G subscriptions, translating to over 5.3 billion 5G subscriptions in 2029.
To achieve these targets, further improvements to the 5G standard and additional frequency spectrum are needed.
Release 14 was the start of 5G standardization and promised significant speed and capacity improvement over 4G LTE. 5G targeted delivering up to peak data rates of 20 Gbps and average data rates of 100+ Mbps while supporting a 100x increase in traffic capacity and network efficiency. Targeted peak data rates, of up to 20 Gbps downlink and 10 Gbps uplink, were intended to be in the mmWave (millimeter wave) frequency bands.
Fast-forward to October 2022, TSG SA WG2 Chair Puneet Jain provided an update on Release 18 Stage-2 work in the working group. 3GPP Release 18 is branded as 5G-Advanced, the latest 5G standard that had Rel-18 Protocol Coding Freeze (ASN1 and Open API) in March 2024.
Picture 1: TSG Rel-18 timeline & content
https://www.3gpp.org/specifications-technologies/releases/release-18
Problem-solving 5G
Even with the latest release, major issues still affect 5G networks related to uplink limitations, sync issues resulting in reduced coverage, capacity problems, and hardware issues and transport problems (interference with neighboring sites).
Simply put, 5G is still struggling to deliver its full potential. To get a clear understanding of 5G’s challenges, let’s focus on the average data rates and 5G capacity in classical RF sub-10 GHz bands. GSMA Intelligence conducted a study of 5G average speed constraints and looked at 24 countries to understand the benefits of the 6 GHz spectrum addition to the existing 5G frequency spectrum.
The new spectrum was an essential element contributing to reaching 5G targeted download speeds and bringing affordable fiber-like fixed wireless access (FWA) services. They found that an additional spectrum above 6 GHz would allow each cell site to support 3.5 to 6x more homes with 5G FWA.
The study also concluded that this decade’s mobile industry vision concerning connectivity defined through the 5G International Telecommunication Union (ITU) requirement has not been met. The average 5G download speed, without additional frequency spectrum, will not go above 50 Mbps (Picture 2), far off from the original 5G promise of 100+ Mbps average data rate (Picture 2).
Picture 2: average download speeds in scenarios 1, 2, and 3 (Mbps)
Scenario 1: bands n102 & n104 licensed for 5G, Scenario 2: full license-exempt, and Scenario 3: band n104 licensed for 5G
So, where can we find this additional spectrum? In the chart below, you can find a global mid-band snapshot of allocated and targeted 5G spectrum.
Picture 3: mid-band 5G NR spectrum
Every few years, the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) are held to review and revise the Radio Regulations along with the international treaty governing the use of radio-frequency spectrum and geostationary-satellite and non-geostationary-satellite orbits.
The last conference was held in late 2023 to address the need for an additional frequency spectrum and enable major enhancements in the areas of artificial intelligence and extended reality. Looking at the global mid-band snapshot spectrum chart, we can see that the 5G 6 GHz n104 band is here - already allocated in China to 5G in July 2023.
The upper 6 GHz spectrum for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) will soon be identified in Europe and Africa as well. Additionally, the conference adopted an international treaty provision to explicitly recognize that this spectrum is used by wireless access systems such as Wi-Fi, meaning that countries, including the U.S., will not license band n104. However, there are other ways to remain competitive on the global stage.
For example, the 2023 conference concluded the 6th Generation (6G) frequency range from 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz. This additional 2 GHz frequency range will most likely be used on 5G-Advanced networks for increased speed and capacity, as there is no need to wait for “full” 6G standard specifications before introducing licensed 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz bands to cellular standards.
What’s next for 5G standards?
Data demand continues to drive the market and there are no signs of slowing down. In fact, average data consumption per user and per month is expected to grow from 5 GB in 2020 to over 250 GB in 2030.
Driving this data demand is broad-band FWA, automotive, emerging extended reality services, augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality applications. These XR services have set the stage for continuous explosive demand along with artificial intelligence, which is setting up another request for a major wireless network enhancement.
Simply put, data centers and edge networks will enable the true power and potential that AI applications hold and help connect the unconnected and bring AI to the smartphone. While we aren’t there yet, wireless networks will support AI applications stemming from all over the world straight to your handheld device, bringing a powerful lift for the economy. New licensed frequency bands in the range from 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz will be key factors in bringing AI to the edge of the wireless network and enabling extreme coverage and massive connectivity.
