Data is the new currency and will become more profitable, group MCX communications with first responders will continue to evolve, Zero Trust architecture will make substantial advances, machine learning algorithms will become better and better, expect to see exciting developments in the satellite communications space, and 2nm technology enabling hundreds of billions of transistors on a chip to be unveiled.
The best way to predict the future is to create it. But when we are predicting the future, aren’t we creating it at the same time? We might well be in the proverbial 'chicken and egg' situation, especially if you are an NLP understudy. Nevertheless, let’s dust off our crystal ball for 2024, and let’s see what the future could hold for the telecoms industry.
We need to tread carefully, however, and not run straight into the humongous peak which today covers our business horizon - Artificial Intelligence (AI) talk. No matter where you look, you see AI, AI, and AI. Out of Gartner’s Top 10 Technology Trends 2024, three are AI applications.
In November 2023, one journalist on a UK national paper, the Daily Mail, wrote that horses didn’t complain when cars came around so why should we humans worry about being replaced by AI in the workplace? Is there no end to this AI hype?
We need to remember that hype is an engine of technological progress. The humongous peak which is covering our horizon is the 'peak of inflated expectations' as shown uncounted times on Gartner’s Technology Hype Cycle. Therefore, we won't be talking about AI here.
There are also other important technological topics which we will not be covering here - these are past predictions and trends which are now being quietly and continuously worked on - these are all still trends with lots of attention and a bright future. But they are well past the 'prediction' spotlight, so we will let them be - these technologies include ever more powerful cloud computing, all the variants of sustainability, Metaverse, AR/VR/XR, Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain and quantum computing.
Now that we’ve dusted over our shiny crystal ball, let’s get going with our predictions for telecom trends 2024.
#1: Cybersecurity
You might say that cybersecurity is something being continuously worked on. This might be true, but as the world gets more and more connected by the minute, the demand for adequate security grows at an even higher speed. We expect that Zero Trust architecture will make substantial advances as the foundation of network security (any network, enterprise, mobile, IoT devices), coupled with advancements in the machine learning capabilities specifically in that same cyber space.
#2: Group Communications/Mission-Critical Communications
Another area of steady progress – standards-based group communications, known as 3GPP Mission-Critical Communications (MCX/MCPTX/MCPTT) has been the talk of the town for more than five years. While this technology is already deployed around the world, it enjoys limited success. However, as more and more MCX deployment plans are solidified, especially in Europe, we expect accelerated progress in the deployment of group MCX communications around the world in 2024.
#3: V2X
V2X, which is a useful abbreviation for communication between vehicles and 'everything' else - other vehicles, pedestrians, roads and infrastructure - has been discussed for some time now. So why is it on our list? There are more and more cars on the roads, and congestion and accidents are becoming unbearable. Once deployed, V2X offers a chance to dramatically improve safety and driving conditions. The technology still has not been fully standardized by the 3GPP, but even at the present level of maturity of the standards, it is becoming 'good enough' for chip manufacturers to start offering chipsets which can already help cars to become 'intelligent' and to talk with each other. An additional benefit of V2X technologies is the opportunity to utilize the same 5G-Sidelink communication capability for the needs of public safety communications, enabling off-network device-to-device communications. Early trials of 5G-Sidelink by Qualcomm in 2023 give us a lot of hope and promise good future outlook. All in all, we can expect substantial progress of V2X and 5G-Sidelink direct mode technology in 2024 and beyond.
#4: “Data is the new currency”
We didn’t come up with this statement, hence the quotes. But if you think about it, this makes perfect sense. Every moment of our lives we generate data, lots of data - and this data is worth a lot in many applications, starting from the plain targeted advertisement and all the way to training AI. We can expect the value and positioning of unlimited data will continue and demand will drive its price up making data acquisition ever more profitable. This will also require additional data protection mechanisms, from straightforward cyber to laws and regulations.
#5: Machine learning
Of course, it sounds like AI. Unlike AI, which is at the peak of today’s hype, machine learning, or ML as it often abbreviated, has been around for a long time. However, similar to the “long trend” of cybersecurity, ML keeps growing in importance. The data flows from applications are getting more and more intense, and it is important that machines will help with the processing of all that data, which requires ML algorithms to become better and better. We can expect these improvements in the core ML functionality in 2024, even if it will be happening under the disguise of AI.
#6: 5G
5G has been a trend and a talk of the town for a while. But from an implementation point of view, we are still at the initial stages of its journey. Most 5G deployments today are so called 5G non-standalone, which is essentially a 5G network core with LTE access. 5G standalone (5G SA) is still work in progress - but it is only 5G SA that can deliver the full promise of 5G networks with the ability to optimize network resource utilization for different types of applications. 5G SA is also a growing trend in private networks. We should see the acceleration of 5G SA deployments in 2024 and beyond.
#7: 6G
We are still implementing 5G SA, but 6G technology is already on the move. Our network dependency makes us hungry for more speed and bandwidth, and we can add unparalleled, truly ubiquitous connectivity to complete the list of our sacred desires. 3GPP will be starting 6G standardization in 2024, and with commercial deployments targeted for 2029/2030, we are looking at the rapid deployment of 6G technologies over the next five years. To a large degree, 6G should be an evolution of 5G, with the main focus on ubiquitous mobile broadband for everyone and everything (yes, including robots) on planet Earth. We are looking at a wild, exciting journey.
#8: Satellite Communications
It is all about coverage and consistency. We need our networks to function no matter what or where - in a remote part of Australia, Henderson Island in the South Pacific, or in the middle of the Sahara Desert - we’ve grown to fully rely on our networks operating at anytime and anywhere. This is where cavalry satellites come to the rescue. There are now more than 3,000 LEO (Low Eart Orbit) satellites supporting communications circling the Earth right now, and the number might increase to 30,000 in the next six years. But this is not only to handle the sheer volume - network communication technologies continue to evolve enabling the increase in speed, bandwidth, and reliability of satellite communications. We expect 2024 and subsequent years to bring many exciting developments in the satellite communications space.
#9: Computational and graphics capabilities
So we were told that Moore’s Law no longer applies (according to Moore’s Law, the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years). This might be true, but progress in chip capabilities is nothing short of astonishing. In 2020, AMD’s Epyc Rome CPU led the pack with close to 50 billion transistors on a chip. Three years later, Apple’s M3 Max CPU boasted 92(!) billion transistors using 3nm technology. But the expectation now is that 2nm technology will be unveiled in 2024, so we better prepare ourselves to be astonished again with human ingenuity. Going beyond just computational power, Apple M3 offers incredible graphics capabilities, including embedded on the chip AV1 codec - the modest advanced, open source and royalty-free video codec. Going back to our videoconferencing roots, this advanced codec on a chip will enable lots of exciting applications. Harnessing the power of Apple M3 Max will bring to life applications which were impossible before. Watch out for it in 2024.
#10: Programmable networks
The desire for networks to be intelligent has been around for a long time. Wouldn’t it be exciting if your application can simply use APIs to tell the network what is does, and why it is asking for the such bandwidth, such a level of security, such a priority, and all of other resources - and would the network gladly comply (or not)? The talk of “programmable networks” is constant, just think of these acronyms - NGN, IN, SDN, SDWAN, and so on and so forth. We are inching forward in that direction, hoping to see more substantial progress in 2024 and beyond.
Summary
AI is so...2023. Let’s move on to new developments in cybersecurity, group MCX communications, machine learning, 6G, the staggering increase in transistors on a chip thanks to 2nm technology and much, much more. The year 2024 promises more significant technological changes across the board for the telecoms industry.
