#StayConnected! As the hashtag goes, ensuring seamless connectivity has been one of the key priorities for mobile operators during this COVID-19 outbreak. With the pandemic spreading rapidly throughout the world, social distancing and self isolation have become the norm. This however, has massively disrupted our existing daily routines, not just our lifestyles but also in the way we work and in how the entire economy operates. These effects in turn, have resulted in massive changes in the way we consume mobile services and have started making an impact on the investment priorities for the telecom industry as a whole.
Very recently, we conducted an analysis to study the pandemic's impact on the industry. The analysis was built on the traffic trends of mobile operators. We combined the data collected from our customers from different parts of the world with the publicly available data. We think the network traffic trends and operators’ response to the sudden peaks in usage provides valuable insights with regards to the new normal of the telecom market.
Shifts in the consumption of mobile services
There is a clear shift in the usage of various services due to the changes in our daily routines. In many of the countries we analyzed, there was a significant increase in both fixed and mobile broadband usage - with fixed broadband accounting for a larger proportion, and mobile data traffic showing an increase at different levels depending on the country and user behavior. There was up to a 75% increase in online gaming which has driven both fixed and mobile data traffic. Voice services also faced an increased demand, with voice traffic showing an increase of up to 30%.
When we analyze the country-specific trends, at a high-level, mobile traffic and operators’ coping mechanisms show similarities across the world. Yet when you start looking into the details, the decrease in the mobility of users varies from country to country. According to the Mobility Comparison Report of Google, the user traffic in retail and recreational areas decreased by 47% in the US, 85% in the United Kingdom, and 94% in Italy from mid March to mid April.
Further inspection of the data showed an obvious shift in mobile traffic in residential and non-residential areas. In residential areas, data traffic increased substantially by up to 25%. In general, voice calls increased around 30%. In non-residential industrial areas and point of interest locations such as coffee shops, shopping malls, and school districts, an opposite trend is observed. As much as a 10% decrease in mobile data and more than 11% decrease in voice calls have been noted in these areas.
All this data clearly points to one thing - that data from operators' networks can pave way to operator's future strategy, especially in a scenario where COVID-19 lurks around longer than expected. As such, P.I. Works would strongly recommend that operators monitor their networks and the customer experience, combine and correlate these data groups, and take AI-based automated actions to support the unexpected traffic changes in a dynamic manner. Use of AI-based automation brings significant value as it will help operators fight against the pandemic more effectively as they will be spared from grappling with the shortage of resources for on-site optimization, operations and issue management.
The state of 5G rollouts and deployments
On the new deployments end, we expect some regions to face delays in frequency auctions and 5G deployments. 5G spectrum auction delays are expected in France, Spain, Netherlands, Austria and Poland. US is also expected to join the list. US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has already postponed the auction of spectrum in the 3.5GHz band from the 25th of June to the 23rd of July.
Standard bodies are the other stakeholders that seem to thread a similar path. 3GPP has already announced a three-month delay for the latest two batches of 5G protocols. While some developments may see postponements, we expect these to be compensated by the increased investments in the efficiency of the existing 3G and 4G networks. Some operators reiterated that they will drive their Zero Touch vision more aggressively, since it will bring significant operational efficiency gains while preparing for 5G. This would mean that operators now have to manage their network capacity more effectively and use advanced automation techniques to deal with the demand shift.
Operators’ approach to capacity planning and network investments
The changes in the location of users have clear implications on the utilization of the network. The shift in mobile data from non-residential to residential areas has affected the short-term capacity enhancing investment decisions of mobile operators. Operators are now revisiting their investment plans and looking into how they can organize their financial and physical resources more accurately. Since the mobility trends have drastically changed and more people are now connected to the internet, yearly investment plans should be adapted to this change, as fast as it is possible.
In this regard, we would recommend that operators implement capabilities that will enable dynamic, automated management of the existing network capacity. Based on network audits, operators can pinpoint the need for additional investments and follow these up with a list of priorities based on existing budgets and end customer requirements.
Solutions to tackle the challenge
The COVID-19 pandemic has inevitably forced us to rethink our means of survival. The use of digital productivity tools that have witnessed a spike in recent months is expected to continue. We can expect the same of the other trends in communications that have emerged during these times. Taking this as a long term challenge, mobile networks should be autonomous and should dynamically adapt to such changes to ensure that the availability of critical communication services is uninterrupted while businesses continue to run and operations continue with higher efficiency and agility. For these, tools that provide timely insights into the state of the network and the trends in data usage are of paramount importance. It's high time then for Operators to revisit their existing capabilities in this area, and invest in enhancing this capability where it is necessary. The time is right.
