2024 promises to be another interesting year for optical networking. The industry should be recovered from pandemic-era struggles, with most supply chain issues behind us. As a result, network operators can focus on integrating new innovations to improve network capacity and expand network capabilities to provide new services.
#1: 400G Pluggable Deployments Ramp Up in Telcos
The 400G pluggable revolution finally materializing in network applications will be one of 2024’s most significant trends. The first wave of 400G pluggable deployments were defined by low output power (-10 dBm) ZR and ZR+ technology deployed mostly in hyperscaler networks in simple point-to-point fiber data center interconnect (DCI) applications. Traditional network operators have been slower to adopt 400G pluggables because their networks require a number of additional capabilities, including higher- performance (0 dBm launch power) and incremental operational features such as direct management, out-of-band noise suppression, and higher optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) tolerance. These network- grade pluggables started to become available in 2023 and will see increased deployment in communication service provider (CSP) networks in the coming year.
#2: Maximizing Fiber Capacity in the Shadow of Shannon’s Limit
2024 will see a shift in direction for increasing fiber capacity. Historically, network operators saw 20-30% improvement in spectral efficiency with each new generation of coherent optical engine. However, with sixth-generation coherent technology capable of leveraging 64 QAM and supporting 800 Gb/s transmission on a single wavelength, we have nearly reached the limit of spectral efficiency as defined by Claude Shannon. Successive generations of coherent optical engines will provide smaller spectral efficiency gains (e.g., ~10-20%). In response, network operators will seek out new strategies to maximize how much data can be transmitted on each fiber. The simplest and most cost-effective alternative strategy is to expand the usable spectrum. Some equipment providers have responded to this need with solutions that expand the usable spectrum from the extended C-band @ 4.8 THz to the Super C-band @ 6.1 THz. This results in an increase in fiber capacity by nearly 30% while still using readily available and cost-effective C-band technology. Coupled with the latest generation of transponders along with the Super L-band, these solutions can provide nearly 100T of capacity per fiber. In 2024, network operators will increasingly leverage this newer generation of expanded-spectrum optical line systems to maximize fiber capacity in the era of Shannon’s limit.
#3: Modular Standardized Automation Expands the Benefits of Open Networking
Over the past decade, network operators have had two competing goals. The first is to open up their networks to make them more efficient and cost-effective through the integration of a wider choice of innovative technologies from a wider array of solution providers. The second is to simplify network operations through enhanced automation. These goals have historically been at odds as multi-vendor open networks have traditionally made network operations more complex. The original approach to solve this problem was with large overarching network orchestration solutions. However, these solutions often only made network operations more complex while introducing their own unique challenges. In 2023, we saw an increased focus on standardizing network communications interfaces as well as increasingly positive reactions to an alternative software approach based on discrete modular solutions. This combination has proven an effective solution to overcome open network management challenges one component operationally and efficiently at a time. In 2024, we will see more network operators adopt this modular approach to open network management, ultimately resulting in more truly open connectivity networks.
#4: 800G Pluggables Emerge, but Ramp Will Wait for 3nm-Based Solutions
Next year holds good news for network operators that need to push their network capacity even further. The first generation of 800G coherent pluggable optics based on 5-nm digital signal processor (DSP) technology will become commercially available in 2024. While this generation of 800G will mostly be deployed for specialized use cases, we predict most of the market will wait for the next generation of 3- nm DSP solutions, which will include numerous vital incremental features. These features include multi- vendor interoperability with probabilistic constellation shaping modes as well as significantly improved energy efficiency and superior reach.
#5: Terabit Wavelengths: Redefining Capacity Standards
Amid continuing sixth-generation 800G coherent optical engine deployments, we will see the first deployments of wavelengths capable of 1.2T+ of capacity per second in the latter part of 2024. We will also see significant increases in deployment beginning in 2025. Several leading equipment vendors have already announced next-generation transponders, including Infinera, Cisco/Acacia, Nokia, and Ciena.
#6: A Tsunami on the Horizon - AI/ML Traffic Explosion Transforms Data Center Connectivity
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have dominated 2023’s connectivity landscape. However, unlocking the true potential of these technologies requires tremendous capacity and both inter- and intra-data center connectivity. While current timelines for coherent pluggable optical engines indicate that these technologies will keep pace with inter-data center connectivity needs, the debate for innovation at the intra-data center connectivity level rages on. 2024 will see robust debate and early innovations to meet these challenges, with early innovations including 100G SERDES, linear drive optics, and co-packaged optics. These innovations must provide the raw throughput required by AI/ML applications while also greatly reducing power consumption.
#7: Pushing Ahead – Realizing 800G Coherent Pluggables Standards With 1.6T Close Behind
2024 will see the continued maturation of standards for 800G coherent pluggables, as companies build on existing standards, including multi-vendor-interoperable probabilistic constellation shaping. In addition, with OIF’s 1600ZR project having begun in September 2023, 2024 will see increased discussion on standards for 1.6T coherent pluggables, with early efforts addressing form factors, power, and performance.
#8: Government Funding Boosts Domestic Semiconductor Manufacturing
For the last few years, governments have been passing legislation to provide funding to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and increase supply chain security. In 2024, the first set of winners of these grants will be announced. While the full effects of this funding will not be felt for several years, 2024 will see significant progress in revitalizing domestic semiconductor research and technology leadership while improving supply chain autonomy and national security.
Illuminating the way forward in 2024
Despite the industry’s new and lingering macro challenges in 2023, advances in optical networking continued to light the path to higher capacity, more flexible and power-efficient transport infrastructure, and simplified network operations. As we look ahead to the new year, we are confident the industry will leverage further innovations that unlock new opportunities for network operators to enhance their customers’ connectivity experiences.
