Open Radio Access Networks (RAN) has crossed the chasm from beginner to expert. According to Dell’Oro Group, cumulative Open RAN revenue from 2020 to 2025 could be as high as $15 billion, with Open RAN revenues accounting for more than 10% of the overall RAN market by 2025. Growth drivers for Open RAN continue to be 5G technology adoption and enabling network deployments and upgrades at lower costs. Open, intelligent, and automated networks are here to stay.
As more and more Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) turn to Open RAN for trials and deployments, our seven predictions for Open RAN in 2022 include:
#1: Continuation of Open RAN deployments in emerging markets and urban environments
Most of the CAPEX required to build a wireless network is related to the RAN segment, reaching as high as 80% of the total network cost. Reductions in the RAN equipment cost will significantly help the bottom line of wireless operators as they struggle to cope with the challenges of ever-increasing mobile traffic and flat revenues.
According to a TelecomTV survey, overall total cost of ownership is one of the most important considerations driving Open RAN in 2022 and beyond.
Cost-effective Open RAN is especially attractive in emerging markets where Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is low and operators struggle to achieve positive Return on Investment (ROI). Open RAN in those regions can help unify different generations of access technologies while allowing MNOs to avoid vendor lock-in, extend their existing network investments, and make any generation (G) – 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G cellular deployments unified, simplified, and automated. Using Open RAN as the architecture for deployments in emerging markets will help bring more coverage and meet government requirements for coverage.
Open RAN will also be taking off in urban environments to meet the demands of end users in those areas for speed and throughput. Open RAN deployments to date shows that KPIs are as good or better than legacy RAN deployments. As Open RAN uses Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) principles to automate networks, it will be much easier to maintain urban networks.
#2: More O-RAN Alliance compliant software components
O-RAN (with the hyphen) refers to the O-RAN Alliance, which publishes new RAN specifications, releases open software for the RAN, and supports its members in the integration, testing and creating deployments and ready blueprints of their implementations.
The original split of the wireless broadband network was driven by Release 15 of the 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project). The O-RAN Alliance however refers to the key software components as the Radio Unit (O-RU) that performs lower layer signal and radio processing and RF functions, the Distributed Unit (O-DU) that performs packet scheduler and MAC layer functions and the Central Unit (O-CU) that performs the high-level packet processing and cyphering type functions.
The separation of functionalities on southbound and northbound interfaces enables more efficient and cost-effective radio resource management for real-time and non-real-time functionalities, as the RIC customizes network optimization for each network environment and use case.
The O-RAN Alliance will drive the next generation RAN to new levels of openness, efficiency, flexibility, and intelligence using reference designs, open interfaces, virtualization, open source and whitebox elements by leading the industry towards open, interoperable interfaces and RAN virtualization. The O-RAN Alliance is driving more and more software driven components of the Open RAN network. That is why the five European operators in their Open RAN technical requirements document, asked for O-RAN compliance.
According to LightCounting Market Research, the need for RAN software and automation is also continuing to grow including the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) and Service Management & Orchestration (SMO) ecosystems.
#3: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence – RIC further developed, responsible for AI and ML
The RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) for Open RAN was developed and will continue to evolve to enable eNB/gNB functionalities such as xApps on northbound interfaces. Applications such as mobility management, admission control, and interference management are available as apps on the controller, which enforces network policies via a southbound interface toward the radios. RIC provides advanced control functionality, which delivers increased efficiency and better radio resource management. These control functionalities leverage analytics and data-driven approaches including advanced Machine Learning (ML)/Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools to improve resource management capabilities.
Near-RT RIC operates in near-real-time (i.e. in the timeframe >10 ms and <1 s) and is responsible for RAN control and optimization, incorporates xApps to realize Radio Resource Management (RRM), and bases its operation on user experience and cell-specific metrics.
The Non-Real-Time RIC (RAN Intelligent Controller) is an Orchestration and Automation function described by the O-RAN Alliance for non-real-time intelligent management of RAN (Radio Access Network) functions. The primary goal of the Non-RT-RIC is to support non-real-time radio resource management, higher layer procedure optimization, policy optimization in RAN, and providing guidance, parameters, policies and AI/ML models to support the operation of near-Real-Time RIC functions in the RAN to achieve higher-level non-real-time objectives.
The RIC was originally defined for 5G Open RAN only, however now the industry realizes that for network modernization scenarios with Open RAN, the RIC needs to support 2G, 3G, and 4G Open RAN in addition to 5G.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are imperative cloud-native automation tools which are needed to provide intelligent management and operations of the network, the RIC will be key to enable these enhancements.
#4: Radio ecosystem will continue to grow
As Open RAN deployments take off the ecosystem of radio providers is set to expand. Open RAN drives greater vendor diversity and supply chain security. Consolidation over the years has concentrated the RAN vendor market to a few major players, according to Deloitte they are controlling 80% of the market. This is driving the urgency for an open approach. Operators across the globe need and want a wider ecosystem of telecommunication providers to increase cost competitiveness and drive innovation.
More and more governments and MNOs are opting to expand their supplier ecosystem for greater flexibility and choice. The Rip and Replace program in the U.S. is an example of governments replacing equipment from Chinese telecom companies which are considered national security risks.
#5: Standalone core is the deployment of choice for Open RAN 5G networks
The Open RAN movement helps to enable a broader and vibrant open ecosystem of complete solutions. Today, most 5G deployments are supported by existing 4G infrastructure where 5G radios are integrated into the existing 4G Evolved Packet Core (EPC). This is known as Non-Standalone (NSA). Non-Standalone will lock MNOs in with their existing vendors as the interfaces are not open and interoperable.
5G Standalone (SA) is the best option for Open RAN networks, as it is not dependent on 4G equipment and can deliver the capacity needed. With 5G SA, the network is simplified with 5G radios complemented by a next-generation open core network. 5G SA Open RAN networks are ideal for new applications as they provide ultra-reliable, lower-latency communications, allowing more people and devices to use mobile data at the same time, thus enabling true 5G connectivity. Standalone core will be the deployment of choice for Open RAN networks in 2022 and beyond.
#6: Hyperscalers and the Edge
Hyperscalers or cloud giants such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are partnering with and will continue to partner with Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). For example, in April of 2021 Dish selected Amazon for their network. The involvement of big public cloud providers, the “hyperscalers”, is an enormous game changer in favor of the Open RAN initiative. Edge computing as a distributed compute structure and an extension of the cloud supports the operators’ own journey into virtualizing the network and running internal operations more efficiently with CI/CD for software distribution. By both delivering the Open RAN management software, and hosting the RAN network software together, public cloud providers could become very valuable partners to the operators. Keep in mind though that real-time telecommunication transactions must be at the cell site where non-real time transactions can be in the cloud.
#7: Open RAN Private Networks Revolutionize the Market
Private Networks have always been a playing ground for new technologies. Open RAN is no different. While Open RAN brings a lot of different options on the table for an operator, private networks, can go a step further. Many countries are now keeping some spectrum aside for private networks. Open RAN based solutions are ready to take full advantage of this opportunity.
In addition, with many existing and new small cell and RRH players, there will be variety of options available to small enterprises and large indoor/outdoor hybrid private networks. This large ecosystem will create many choices for enterprises.
These Open RAN based private networks will also be able to leverage Standalone 5G core as well as a combined 4G/5G core to provide a standalone private network. Another approach would be for an operator to utilize a slice of a 5G network. Each approach has it pros and cons. Cloud native solutions will allow the enterprises to take advantage of hyperscalers for edge as well as for deploying the infrastructure software.
In summary, Open RAN networks have crossed the chasm and are here to stay, enabling wireless best of breed RAN networks to be deployed faster and at lower costs, thus helping MNOs to deliver state-of-the-art broadband services across the globe.
