We will all remember 2019 as the year 5G got serious, going from a few initial test networks to reach millions of users in dozens of markets across the globe. The next generation is now beginning to have a marked effect on the mobile network user experience, and we expect this to snowball over the next few years as 5G becomes increasingly ubiquitous and hundreds of millions of users upgrade. But we shouldn't get too excited. 5G is here, but is unlikely to surpass existing 4G or even 3G mobile networks over the next year.
#1: 3G WILL BE MORE POPULAR THAN 5G
We expect that 3G networks will continue to be more popular than 5G in 2020. Opensignal's data shows that 27.2% of our global user base has never connected to 4G and instead relies on 3G. And this is not just in emerging markets: we found that up to half of users in parts of Germany still don't connect to 4G networks. 5G adoption is moving too slowly to overtake 3G adoption in just one year, anywhere in the world. A recent report from Gartner forecasts communication service providers will gain more revenue from 3G than from 5G in 2019.
#2: USING 5G TO EASE CONGESTION ON 4G NETWORKS
We expect that operators will focus their 5G rollouts on easing congestion on their 4G networks. Otherwise as data demand continues to rise, we will see signs of increased congestion on 4G networks, leading to reduced speeds in some mature markets. And throughout 2020, we expect that the vast majority of users will still rely heavily on 4G. But as 5G networks become more ubiquitous and devices more widespread, a key operator use case will be the migration of heavy data users onto 5G, to improve the 4G mobile network experience. But the 5G experience will be hugely dependent on a number of factors, not least the availability of spectrum.
#3: MARKETING THE 5G USER EXPERIENCE
Peter Boyland,
Senior Analyst
OpenSignal
The user experience on nascent 5G networks will not be uniform. 5G coverage and speeds will depend a lot on the type of spectrum used. We have already seen notable differences in mobile network experiences on 4G, dependent on the bandwidth used. Users connecting to 5G on low-band (sub-1 GHz) spectrum will not have a dramatically better experience than on 4G - but consumers will still see the 5G icon in their phone’s status bar. Meanwhile, users on high-band mmWave will experience extremely fast speeds, but very little coverage, while those on mid-band spectrum will see something between the two. But all these different flavors of network experience will be called 5G - creating a challenge for operators in bringing new 5G services to market.
Operators will need to become creative when marketing 5G services to their customers. The initial jump in speed will not always justify big increases in cost - especially when 5G launches using only low-band spectrum - and certainly not enough to fund the investment required for large-scale 5G rollouts. In countries where there are large quantities of new mid-band spectrum suitable for 5G, operators will return to offering unlimited data plans as wireless spectrum constraints are released. Elsewhere, 5G will trigger more operators to launch fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband, and use home 5G offerings to help boost multiplay bundles, or content bundles to accelerate 5G adoption.
#4: MOBILE NETWORKS: THE RURAL/URBAN DIVIDE
As 5G rollout and adoption gathers pace, this will accentuate the urban/rural divide in many markets. Opensignal has recently analyzed the difference between urban and rural areas - and we found a sizable rift in mobile network experience in a number of markets. In Germany, we saw 4G Availability differ by over 10 points on some operators, while in Malaysia this gap was close to 40 points. And with 5G operator rollout following the 4G model and focusing on densely populated cities, average speeds will rise for our urban users, with rural speeds drifting further behind. Eventually 5G rollout will come to rural areas too - but we don't expect this for a few years yet, except where operators use low-band spectrum.
#5: MOBILE GAMING, THE "KILLER SERVICE"
5G will bring huge improvements to the mobile gaming experience - but this progress will initially be slow. Online gaming has been tipped as the "killer service" which will monetize 5G, due to its requirements for lightning-fast networks and ultra-low latency. As latency improves on 4G and 5G networks, users will increasingly play multiplayer games on cellular as well as on Wifi connections and also talk to their teammates in-game using voice over IP. Online multiplayer and cloud-based gaming are clearly the future - but the rollout of 5G won't happen overnight, and we will have to rely on 4G network speeds for a while.
#6: IMPROVING MOBILE VIDEO EXPERIENCE
5G will bring a truly watchable mobile video experience. Opensignal launched our state-of-the-art Video Experience metric a year ago - but since then we've seen very few operators achieve our top Excellent rating. In the U.S., only one operator was even able to claim a Good ranking - meaning that for millions of Americans, mobile video is barely watchable, especially at higher definitions. The low quality of mobile video streaming on 4G networks is due to a combination of congestion, poor latency, and operator throttling practices. But 5G will help relieve the pressure on 4G networks, enabling more users to simultaneously enjoy a better mobile video experience, and allowing operators to lift network video traffic restrictions.
Ultimately, there is little doubt that 5G will become truly mainstream in 2020 - but not for all. There will still be huge differences in the mobile network user experience on the new technology, dependent on coverage, capacity and the type of spectrum used. And while 5G will come to the big cities, those in rural areas may have to wait for some years, even in the most mature markets.
