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IHS says 'Real' 5G Is Far Off; Service Providers Struggling to Find Compelling Use Cases

Market research firm, IHS recently published the following article as a research note discussing the evolution of 5G technology towards full commercialization, covering initiatives by telecoms vendors, standards bodies and service providers.

The 5G race is on and raging. The very first discussions about 5G started in 2012, and in 2013 NTT DoCoMo garnered attention by seriously discussing the possibility of rolling out 5G in time for the Tokyo Olympics in 2020.

Soon after, South Korea set the target for pre-commercial 5G showcasing commercial pre-standard evolutionary 5G - in reality, something like a 4.5G - for the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in 2018. Since then, major 5G R&D developments have happened in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea, fueling the hype to a level never seen for 3G and 4G. And finally, Verizon caught the mobile industry off guard last year at CTIA by announcing its aggressive 5G plan with first commercial deployments in 2017.

So What Is 5G, Anyway?

5G means a lot of different things to different people in various industries. Every stakeholder in the game - vendors, mobile operators, 5GPPP, the ITU and others—has its own ideas and thoughts about what 5G should be, and there’s currently a split between two schools of thought. Evolutionary 5G is an extension of current Long Term Evolution (LTE) and LTE-Advanced networks and is backward compatible with all 3GPP technologies. Revolutionary 5G, meanwhile, is a brand-new network architecture that requires a new air interface and radio access technology (RAT), moving away from current cellular designs.

In the end, 5G is the evolution of wireless and mobile technologies to create a new mode of connectivity that will not only provide humans with an enhanced broadband experience, but also address a wide range of industrial applications. What it is not is a continuing development of 4G and current technologies. 5G is already on a path that goes beyond cellular, shaping up as a multilink architecture that enables direct device-to-device communications. 

4G is just ramping up, and LTE as we know it is just at 3G transitional. As such, 4G will continue to evolve in parallel with the ongoing development of 5G.

“Pre-5G”

Driven by the pre-5G race agenda spearheaded by Verizon, KT, SK Telecom, NTT DOCOMO, KDDI and Softbank, all radio access network (RAN) vendors are developing 5G air interfaces and new RAT ahead of the release of spectrum. But these early 5G systems will be “pre-5G” and operating in sub-6GHz spectrum. And let’s face it: there really isn’t anything new in sub-6GHz spectrum—it’s where existing mobile and wireless communications already coexist. Still, there is simply no choice, as mmWaves are far from being ready for prime time. So as a result, “real” 5G at higher spectrum bands isn’t expected until 2020.

Use Cases? What Use Cases?

The entire mobile ecosystem is trying to figure out the uses cases for 5G. Every service provider on this planet that has jumped into the 5G race is trying to find convincing uses cases that can greatly benefit from the proposed ITU IMT-2020 enhancements. And although the usual suspects are already in the game, companies such as Google and would-be entrepreneurs may come to the table with disruptive ideas.

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Author

Ray is a news editor at The Fast Mode, bringing with him more than 10 years of experience in the wireless industry.

For tips and feedback, email Ray at ray.sharma(at)thefastmode.com, or reach him on LinkedIn @raysharma10, Facebook @1RaySharma

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