Ovum forecasts that there will be 24 million 5G subscriptions worldwide at the end of 2021 for mobile and fixed broadband services. The market research firm's inaugural 5G Subscription forecasts released this week highlights that North America and Asia will each account for more than 40% of global 5G subscriptions at the end of 2021, followed by Europe with more than 10% of subscriptions, with the Middle East and Africa accounting for the remainder.
Ovum estimates that 5G services will be available in more than 20 markets worldwide by the end of 2021, covering all four major world regions. However, the vast majority of 5G subscriptions will be concentrated in the US, Japan, China, and South Korea, where major operators have revealed aggressive timelines for launching 5G services.
Ovum defines a 5G subscription as an active connection to a 5G network via a 5G device. 5G is further defined as a system based on and complying with 3GPP 5G standards, beginning with parts of 3GPP Release 15, which is scheduled to be finalized in 2018.
A number of operators have announced plans to launch what they describe as 5G services before 2020, but these will not typically be based on networks and devices complying with 5G standards, and so are excluded from Ovum’s forecasts.
Mike Roberts, Ovum Practice Leader covering carrier strategy and technology
Over time 5G will support a host of use cases including Internet of Things and mission-critical communications, but Ovum does not believe those use cases will be supported by standardized 5G services through 2021.
