Market research firm, ABI Research forecasts that 2016 macrocell base station spending will decline for the second year in a row, reaching US$48 billion, as operators shift CAPEX to network densification. Worldwide base station spending will decline by two percent in 2016 and then by double digits each year thereafter.
“The basestation spending decline means that CAPEX is shifting to less capital intensive solutions, including small cells, DAS, and Wi-Fi for densification,” says Nick Marshall, Research Director at ABI Research. “While India will dominate spending in Asia-Pacific over the next few years, North America’s 4G coverage is virtually complete as the region prepares for 5G along with Japan and South Korea.”
According to ABI Research, the Asia-Pacific region is still the largest base station market in 2016, but down from its 2015 peak as China completes its LTE rollout. North America will see the biggest declines as deployments for LTE coverage diminish. In 2015, Ericsson led the overall base station market, followed by Huawei, Nokia Networks, Alcatel-Lucent, and ZTE. But those same companies will face challenges in the months ahead.
“As the 5G technology cycle gets underway, base station vendors including Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia will face the challenge of replacing lost revenue in the short term,” concludes Marshall. “While the early commercialization of 5G will certainly help to replace this lost revenue, it is not until well after 2020 that this contribution becomes meaningful. Base station vendors must diversify to make up for this shortfall.”
