Ovum expects 2G/3G networks to be around for some time, although there will be a gradual phasing out of the services. The research company foresees no mass scale close down of these networks until 2020 and predicts that in some markets, 3G networks may see closure before 2G. This is due to a number of factors including - 2G still being an important source of revenue, LTE providing a better mobile broadband experience than 3G; and the increasing deployment of VoLTE that enables LTE to handle the voice responsibilities of 3G.
According to Ovum, LTE’s appeal and increased affordability means operators in developed markets have to refarm GSM or CDMA spectrums to accommodate this demand. Ovum added that a few operators in the US and Asia-Pacific have announced network closures.
Ovum however said that besides important commercial factors that need to be considered, there are also cost factors that affect the timing of the networks' shut down. Cost of migrating residual customers to LTE and the cost of maintaining an ageing legacy network are other considerations operators use to determine the timing of the legacy network closure.
Nicole McCormick, Principal Analyst, Ovum
For operators in transition, there are key revenues – M2M, voice and roaming – that need to be considered in the trade-off when determining the optimal time to close the network. The amount of 2G, 3G, and LTE spectrum an operator has can also affect timing. The majority of operators are not in a position today to close their legacy networks, nor will they be in the next 1–2 years.