Nick Marshall, Networks Research Director at ABI Research, anticipates outdoor DAS (oDAS) and Wi-Fi deployments to cannibalize small cell shipments to some extent from 2017. This trend is expected despite the growing number of outdoor small cell deployments by MNOs like Verizon, Vodafone, Telefónica, Softbank, SK Telecom, and Sprint. ABI Research’s latest forecast for outdoor small cells takes into account new market research and upholds its expectations for 2015 through 2020 to deliver a 43% CAGR.
According to ABI Research, in 2015, 4G small cells are the fastest growing small cell type in the market driven by venue and dense urban deployments. ABI Research forecasts the number of LTE small cells to double in 2015 and by a similar factor each year with growth slowing due to the impact of oDAS and Wi-Fi. In 2020 the value of LTE small cells will represent almost 90% of the small cell equipment market. The Asia-Pacific region, given its large size and 4G deployments in South Korea and Japan and the start of commercial TD-LTE operations in China and India, will grow to represent over 50% of the worldwide small cell equipment market by 2018.
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The challenges of backhaul, power, permitting, and siting drive the rise of SCaaS (Small Cells as a Service) from OEMs such as Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Networks, and Ericsson and infrastructure owners such as Towerstream, Crown Castle, Cloudberry Mobile, and Virgin Media Business, added ABI Research.
