Global mobile app revenue will grow by 2.2 times over the next five years, from US$36bn in 2015 to US$79bn in 2020, according to global analyst firm Ovum. This is against the increase in the number of app downloads for the same period which is expected to increase 1.8 times – from 211 billion in 2015 to 378 billion in 2020.
According to Ovum, the mobile app market will grow more over the next five years than since its inception eight years ago. More than three times as much revenue will be generated in the coming five years than was generated between 2008 and 2015, and there will be 2.5 times as many downloads (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Global app downloads and revenue, 2008–15 vs. 2016–20
Source: Ovum
“Downloads will however see a marked slowdown in mature smartphone markets as they approach saturation and as user acquisition costs escalate, placing a greater emphasis on download quality rather than quantity,” says Guillermo Escofet, principal analyst in Ovum’s Digital Media team and author of the report.
“Revenue, on the other hand, will continue on a higher growth trajectory as people spend more time on apps and as in-app spending intensifies,” adds Escofet.
Growth in global average revenue per download will tail off by the end of the forecast period, as late adopters and emerging markets become ever greater contributors to the global pie.
Ovum forecasts that emerging markets will register the steepest growth rate over the next five years in both downloads and revenue – twice as steep as developed markets in the case of the latter. Yet developed markets will continue to capture the largest share of revenue.
Downloads, on the other hand, will continue to be dominated by emerging markets. Also, emerging markets’ share of both downloads and revenue will increase.
