If the past two years have taught us anything, it’s that Internet connectivity has enabled us to do amazing things. Whether it’s scientists collaborating to develop vaccinations at lightning speed, the ability to shop for almost anything online, or immediately shifting most of the world’s workforce to work-from-home, the power of connectivity has helped get us through some very difficult times.
Below are my predictions for 2022 that I believe will improve the world in even bigger and better ways. Each is a step towards a more frictionless society, increasingly powered by data - and the fiber upon which it flows. But each prediction has some risks for why it may not succeed as quickly or fully as one would hope. To account for this, I have included my potential ‘pitfalls’ for things that could get in the way of success, and they all seem to point back to a common theme. Read on to learn more.
#1: Businesses Will Fully Embrace Broadband
There has been a seismic shift in why and how businesses connect to the Internet. The rising importance of online applications and a ‘cloud-first’ approach, along with microservices and APIs, the increased demand for video due to the sudden shift to work from home, and the growth of IoT ‘things,’ have all culminated in businesses needing faster, easier, and lower cost methods for connecting to the Internet.
Businesses have traditionally relied upon MPLS, but it’s expensive and time consuming to implement. Now, Software-Defined Wide-Area Networks (SD-WAN) provide another option.
SD-WAN combines multiple Broadband Internet connections to deliver high-quality, reliable network connectivity that is more agile and less expensive – significantly so.
Potential Pitfall: While Broadband can be faster to implement than traditional MPLS, it has no industry-approved ordering standards. This generally makes the buy-and-sell process more complicated and error-prone. Industry organizations like the Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF) and others are working to establish common APIs that will simplify the buying and selling of connectivity between service providers. Critical APIs, including Ethernet and Broadband, are just now being introduced and there is still more work ahead. Meanwhile, new ordering and workflow automation tools are helping to fill the gap - and will remain an important part of the equation going forward.
#2: 5G FWA Takes Off as a Viable Last Mile Alternative - and a Potential Cure for the Digital Divide
5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is a hybrid of cellular and fixed line technologies, and it’s set to be the fastest-growing residential Broadband segment, according to a study from ABI Research [1], with a compound annual growth rate of 71% and exceeding 58 million subscribers by 2026. 5G FWA will also be critically important for expanding job opportunities and supporting small businesses in rural areas- especially important in today’s ‘work from anywhere’ environment.
5G FWA can be delivered not only by existing Mobile Network Operators, but also classic wireline providers. It has been used for some time now with 4G, but 5G technology is the real game-changer, and the U.S. Government is backing its deployment with extra funding – hoping to bring much needed high speed Broadband to underserved communities. With the ability to support gigabit speeds it will likely compete head-to-head with existing wireline Broadband services, potentially even in areas where last mile availability isn’t an issue.
Potential Pitfall: Because 5G FWA is a hybrid of multiple technologies, it also brings added complexity, especially for mobile operators. For FWA to deliver on its promise of 5G speeds, the fiber connections may not have to go all the way to the home or office, but they need to get ‘close enough’ – depending upon the speeds and other SLAs that need to be supported. This adds new fronthaul and mid-haul fiber requirements in addition to traditional backhaul – creating the need for mobile operators to lease more fiber in more locations and adding a lot of back office complexity to keep track of it all. Will today’s telcos be up to the task of rolling out 5G FWA in the timeframes needed to keep up with demand? If not- other players will likely swoop in to fill the gap.
#3: Edge Computing Moves Out of the Lab and Into Real Life - Expanding the Ecosystem of Connectivity Buyers and Sellers
At the end of last year, there were nearly 600 hyperscale data centers [2] in the world. There is no doubt that cloud computing has dramatically changed the IT landscape, but its centralized nature is not ideal for all applications and use cases.
Edge computing represents the fourth major paradigm shift in modern computing, which began with mainframes in the 1950s and 60s. It then moved to a client/server model from the 1970’s until early 2000s, and then to the cloud. Now, finally, we are at the edge.
Edge computing puts compute, storage, and analytics physically closer to where it needs to happen. It does this by relying upon a mesh network of micro data centers that process and react to data locally; in effect, creating smaller ‘clouds’ at the edge. This reduces the delays and cost of sending data back and forth to and from centralized data centers, but it’s expected to result in a massive number, potentially millions, of micro data centers that will be popping up just about everywhere.
Potential Pitfall: At the end of the day these new architectures still depend on fiber. This creates new demand, along with a plethora of new buyers and sellers; everyone from managed service providers and systems integrators, to tower companies, resellers, carrier hotels, cooperatives, and a growing list of other middlemen. This greatly expands the order management ecosystem and its complexity. Do telcos have the right tools and agility needed to respond to this new environment?
#4: Hyper-automation and RPA Will Drive Improvements in Legacy OSS/BSS
Despite massive improvements in networks, many back office systems remain outdated - creating service bottlenecks that impact performance.
This last prediction is really the most important one of all. If it doesn’t come true - then my previous three predictions won’t either - at least not for 2022. The items I’ve highlighted above reflect amazing technological progress that will improve how we live, work, and play. But there’s a problem that has become too big to ignore. Often taken for granted, most of the underlying connectivity resources are still bought, sold, and managed not through some automated and well-orchestrated process as one would imagine - but a through a tangled mix of emails, phone calls, and Excel spreadsheets.
That’s right, some of the most critical digital connections powering today’s biggest businesses and smartest cities are dependent upon an outdated, error-prone process that is leaving carrier provisioning departments buried in unanswered emails, unreturned phone calls, and sticky-note reminders. Not surprisingly, the result is that customers are enduring long delays in service delivery with lots of missteps and mistakes along the way.
The reason for this turmoil is that many carriers’ BSS/OSS systems were never designed to manage the growth and demands of today’s networks. It’s like a dirt road trying to support highway traffic. You may eventually get to where you’re going - but it’s going to be a painfully long and bumpy ride. Meanwhile, enterprises accustomed to spinning up compute and storage infrastructure in seconds on Google or Amazon Web Services will grow impatient with 45-90 day deployment times for connectivity from their telco.
My prediction (and hope) for 2022 is that ‘hyper-automation’ will help solve many telco order management challenges. Hyper-automation is automation on steroids. It involves the orchestrated use of multiple technologies, tools, or platforms to rapidly identify, vet, and automate multiple processes at once. When paired with innovations like low-code/no-code tools and robotic process automation (RPA), the need for many of today’s repeatable, highly-manual tasks is either reduced or eliminated. With hyper-automation, everything that can be automated will be automated; allowing services to be delivered as they should be - faster, more efficiently, and with fewer errors. And the research backs this up. A recent survey [3] by Analysys Mason states that when it comes to service fulfillment, operators reported automation may reduce order fallout up to 80% by using standardized templates, scenarios, or customer journeys, and achieve up to an 88% reduction in the time it takes to provision a new service.
It appears the industry is starting to take note. Gartner predicts information technology budgets for 2022 will rise at a faster rate than they have in more than ten years, with a focus on deploying tools to support more modular and adaptable business models. [4] Is it too much to hope that the disjointed emails, phone calls, and lost orders will finally become a thing of the past, and that doing business with telcos will finally be as user friendly as their web service cousins?
Potential Pitfall: When it comes to BSS/OSS automation, the act of doing nothing is the riskiest act of all. Mobile network operators are expected to spend $37 billion in CAPEX [5] in 2022. Despite all this investment, if you can’t create a new order or deliver on what’s been promised in a timely manner, then what’s it all for?
2022: A year for reflection - and action
For the telecom industry, 2022 should be a year of reflecting on lessons-learned. A time, hopefully, when we can finally take a collective breath and step back to assess what works and what doesn’t. Advancements in our industry have enabled amazing things - but the world’s growing dependence on connectivity has also highlighted some real pain points. The common ‘pitfall’ for many promising new technologies and services centers around the need to automate and streamline the buying and selling of connectivity - which has become the lifeblood of business, education, communication, and so much more. It’s a small step that could make a big difference. Visit Neustar’s website to learn more.
[1] ABI Research - Pay TV and Residential Broadband Subscriptions
[2] Statista - Global figure of hyperscale data centers 2015 - 2021
[3] Nokia - Operator benefits from the automation of IP networks
[4] CIO Journal - IT Budgets Rising at Faster Rate
[5] LightReading - US wireless carrier capex projected to grow 11% in 2021 to $35B
