In a landscape still dominated by TV, the Asia Pacific online video industry is on a sure path to more than double its share of video industry revenues ex-China from 9% in 2017 to 20% by 2023, according to analysis by Media Partners Asia (MPA).
The analysis covers 12 markets: Australia, India, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and six key markets in Southeast Asia, with a focus on consumer and advertiser spend, content costs and market share across key clusters.
Commenting on the MPA analysis, executive director Vivek Couto said: “The growth of subscription and ad-supported video services from Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Google will propel these FANG companies to a combined 63% share of Asia Pacific online video revenues ex-China by the end of 2018.
Google-owned YouTube’s dominance is reflected by its 70-90% slice of a large and fast-growing online video ad pie in Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and India. In addition, Amazon and Netflix have scaled quickly with subscription video offerings in Australia, India and Japan but have a long way to go in Southeast Asia and Korea. There’s also a long runway for more growth in India.
Encouragingly, local and regional players with strong entertainment and sports IP together with, in many instances, large TV businesses, have invested in online video platforms to grab a bigger market share. This is espescially true in India, Korea and Japan, although Southeast Asia lags.
The outlook remains in FANG’s favor however, with its aggregate market share maintained at 62% in 2023. Such scale will dramatically alter growth and investment dynamics across key markets. We see significant upside for local and regional media platforms with attractive IP and strong execution as well as the appetite and patience to invest over the long term across digital video.
Excluded from MPA analysis are potential all-in premium offerings from Disney, 21st Century Fox and Time Warner, which are likely to start gaining traction at some point over the next five years as global media consolidation accelerates.
FANG’s share could also be greater once Amazon Prime Video scales up in Australia and key markets across Southeast Asia. This is not yet included in the assumptions underlying MPA’s analysis.”
Key highlights from the MPA survey include:
FANG vs The Rest
The growth of subscription and ad-supported video services from Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Google will propel the FANG companies to a combined 63% share of Asia Pacific online video revenues ex-China by the end of 2018. Google-owned YouTube’s dominance is reflected by its 70-90% slice of a large and fast growing online video ad pie in Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and India. Amazon and Netflix have scaled quickly with subscription video offerings in Australia, India and Japan but have a long way to go in Southeast Asia and Korea. There’s also a long runway for more growth in India.
Encouragingly, local and regional players with strong entertainment and sports IP and, in many instances, large TV businesses, have invested in online video platforms to grab a bigger market share. This is espescially true in India, Korea and Japan although Southeast Asia lags.
According to MPA, YouTube and Facebook combined will account for 72% of online video advertising in Asia Pacific ex-China by 2023, versus 75% at end-2018. In subscription-based online video, Amazon and Netflix’s combined share of the market should reach 35% in 2018 and grow to 37% by the end of 2023, although local and regional platforms are competing for and winning a share of incremental dollars in Australia, India, Japan, Korea and parts of Southeast Asia.
Content Investment
Total content investment in TV and online video across the 12 surveyed markets reached US$23.1 billion in 2017, up 6% Y/Y. MPA’s analysis includes movies, entertainment and sports. Content investment is expected to scale to US$30.1 billion by 2023, a 5% CAGR from 2018. Such growth is largely anchored to new dollars being spent across online video, which will account for 17% of content investment by 2023 versus 10% in 2018. MPA analysis focuses on premium video content creation across TV and OTT but excludes costs associated with the billions of hours being mass produced and uploaded on YouTube.
