The Optical Transport market, largely driven by WDM equipment, is forecasted to increase in size annually for the next five years, reaching nearly $18 billion, according to a forecast by Dell’Oro Group.
This forecast update is unchanged from the research firm's previous forecast. That said, Dell'Oro Group did lower our outlook for WDM Metro since the coherent 400 Gbps ZR (400ZR) pluggable optics are now available and interest in using them in an IPoDWDM architecture seems high.
Dell'Oro Group is predicting coherent ZR optical pluggable demand to reach a material amount in 2022, starting with 400ZR. The firm project this pluggable optic will be in high demand among Internet content providers (ICPs), driving a very high percentage growth rate for the next few years. Following the success of 400ZR, Dell'Oro Group anticipate 800ZR will enter the market a few years later. It forecasts the ZR pluggable optics market will surpass $500 million in annual sales by 2025.
Demand for 800 Gbps-capable line cards, first introduced in early 2020, has rapidly increased, demonstrating a strong rate of adoption as well as the markets continued desire for higher performance DWDM transponder cards. As such, we believe the market is already preparing to release the next single carrier wavelength speed.
Dell’Oro Group predicts the next wavelength speed following 800 Gbps will be 1200 Gbps (1.2 Tbps). Based on the timing of past coherent DSP introductions, the firm anticipate 1.2 Tbps-capable line cards could enter the market before the end of 2023.
Dell’Oro Group forecasts that by 2025 about one-third of all coherent wavelength shipments will be from a line card capable of transmitting a signal at a speed of 800 Gbps or higher.
