Everyone in the mobile app industry has suffered the effects of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict. From big companies to small developers, mobile businesses see a drastic change in their metrics, key performance indicators, and revenues. For example, in the USA, Android rewarded ads eCPM is 14% lower than it was in February, which means that publishers are losing this chunk of revenue selling the same number of impressions of the said ad format. The same trend of a 15-20% decrease is happening in most of the Tier-1 countries, although all of them show a distinct pattern. The Russian and Ukrainian markets obviously took the biggest hit.
A few months ago, we at Appodeal published a report exploring how the eCPMs shifted in Russia & Ukraine in March and April 2022 in the light of the conflict. We analyzed eCPM trends for different ad formats, the reasons behind the drop, and gave implications for how to adapt your strategies in the face of this challenge. Three months after the beginning of the conflict, the situation changed in quite an unexpected direction.
The nitty-gritty of eCPM drops
The ad format that got affected the most was rewarded video ads. Its eCPM on both Android and iOS drastically plummeted as soon as the world learned that Russia sent the military to Ukraine. By the end of March, it fell 75% on iOS, and 71% on Android.
For interstitials, the drop in eCPMs was severe on both platforms, but we expected to see them stabilize since in mid-April there were signs of recovery in both Russia & Ukraine in iOS. The banner eCPM in iOS fluctuated slightly, around 7% during March and April, fell 37% in Android, then started to slowly grow again.
During the last few months, we’ve been seeing some significant industry shifts. Global companies stopped working in certain markets, in-app user behavior and consumption patterns changed, and developers of certain countries couldn’t get paid or lost support from their business partners.
On the other side of the change, we’re seeing how quickly publishers adjusted their strategies. For example, some Russian publishers moved their IAP-based monetization models to In-App Ads. The drop in eCPMs in Russia presents an opportunity to acquire cheap users in this market. At the same time, while publishers in Russia couldn’t set up their UA campaigns based on in-game actions, they redistributed some of their marketing budgets, from performance marketing to brand awareness campaigns.
Today, eCPM for interstitials in iOS in Russia is 30% higher than February values, which is $2.92 today ($2.28 in February). In Android, eCPM follows the same trend, but its recovery is slower and will take longer to return to the pre-war levels.
In banner ads on iOS, Russia has a higher eCPM than, for example, the USA. Developers that monetize in Russia make around 15% more than those who do it in the US. Android eCPMs are back to February levels but still low in Russia $0.09 compared to the US where it’s $0.64.
iOS rewarded ad eCPM in Russia is recovering, but still far from getting to the February levels, while in Android the recovery is twice as fast.
In Ukraine, in IOS - both rewarded and interstitial eCPMs plummet. This trend heavily contrasts with banner ads, which hadn’t been affected by the conflict until the second week of May when it suddenly started to fall. In Android, there are temporary fluctuations for banner ads, interstitials, and rewarded ads. In all three ad types, the eCPMs in Ukraine plummeted but are already showing optimistic signs of recovery.
How can you adapt?
While the situation is still in flux, we can recommend developers to closely follow the eCPM trends to adjust their strategies to the change. For example, for Android developers, it’s a good time to optimize their rewarded ads and interstitials in Russia because soon the eCPMs might get back to their pre-war levels. Banner ads in Ukraine and Russia have had their ups and downs, but the trend is stable and with the summer sales, the eCPMs for this format may grow even higher.
For iOS developers, the recommendation is to optimize monetization strategies around banner ads for both Russia and Ukraine. It’s a safe bet because the eCPMs here show outstanding growth. While eCPMs for interstitials fell three months ago, during the last few weeks they have been steadily growing.
Rewarded Ads in Russia show signs of recovery, while in Ukraine there’s no significant indicator of a positive change, which creates a good opportunity for all mobile creators to promote their apps & games with User Acquisition campaigns using video ad creatives.
While the war is disruptive for the whole global economy, the mobile app industry is quite resilient and rich with data to draw actionable insights from. Staying on top of your game with the metrics and trends and taking timely action to seize an opportunity or dodge a risk, is the only way for the publishers to ensure their mobile apps survive and are set up to thrive when this conflict stabilizes.
