For years, technology has been promising a great tectonic shift that we are finally seeing come to pass.
In June 2021, the Fiber Broadband Association (FBA) released a study declaring fiber-optic infrastructure the best sustainable solution to close the rural digital divide. A month later, the president signed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act into law, allocating $65 billion in broadband spending to expand affordable high-speed service to the estimated 40 million Americans who live in areas that still lack it. On January 5, 2022, the FBA released another study expecting broadband to enter its largest investment cycle ever.
Now, as three major telecommunications trends converge, 2022 is set to be a banner year for fiber deployment.
1. True 5G will develop
The 5G we know now may not be what makes 2022 so special, but eventually, it will be. A lot of premature marketing dollars went into the hype around 5G in the past, but the real build-up hadn’t started yet. Until now, the market has been focused on consumer 5G and enhancing mobile devices. As 5G matures, it has the capacity to become so much more, but only the backhaul and transport capacity of fiber can support its full potential. In one survey, 83% of network operator executives agreed fiber was "very important" to their 5G rollouts, which means the continued expansion of 5G services from cities into rural markets across the nation will drive more fiber.
The consumer 5G we’ve seen so far is just the transition to developing true 5G, where AI, automation, and robotics can revolutionize industries. The next wave of 5G enables the kind of massive machine-to-machine communications and internet of things (IoT) needed to automate and improve operational efficiency for large enterprises like manufacturing, airlines, and hospitals. It also opens us up for broader use of technologies like self-driving cars, wind farms, and smart cities. The possibilities of 5G will happen and continue to evolve in ways we never imagined - just maybe not as quickly as past propositions have promised.
2. Everything will speed up
The year 2022 will also be the year that the industry speeds up in terms of deployment, so expect to see construction crews on the streets laying more fiber. Service providers who want to ride this oncoming wave of connectivity will have to act quickly to deploy networks and hit more homes, and most of them will turn to fiber. In 2021 alone, fiber deployment grew by 12%, and it continues to score higher than any other broadband technology – cable, satellite, or wireless - in terms of capacity, reliability, latency, and customer satisfaction. Companies will want to streamline the process of fiber connection and take advantage of the latest techniques to increase their rates of installations and outpace their competitors.
More significantly, this means more of the larger Multiple System Operators (MSOs) will finally make the move to all-fiber networks. So far, smaller companies have been a driving force in the growth of these networks. While over 1,200 Tier 3 MSOs with smaller projects made up about 18% of the 2021 build and Tier 2 companies deployed another 10%, less than 10 major Tier 1 companies made up the rest of its growth. But now, massive waves of funding and investments are sure to start drawing more of the larger MSOs, and with their capacity to fund massive buildouts, 2022 should be the year they roll out high-speed fiber to the home.
Even society at large has adopted the vernacular of fiber service quickly, unintimidated by its complex terms because they know at least one thing - fiber means high-speed. I often hear people ask, "Do you have fiber in your home?" but they never mention broadband, cable modem, or Digital Subscriber Lines. My son is looking for a new house and excitedly showed me the real estate listing to brag that he might get fiber. Our family members may say they have no idea what fiber is, but they know fiber makes everything run faster.
3. Broadband will enable work-live-play from anywhere
The pandemic taught us a lesson in how to manage life remotely, but broadband will enable a whole new level of work-live-play from anywhere, and there's no turning back. My husband wanted to go on an African safari for his 60th birthday, but without high-speed broadband in Africa, there was no way I could go. Five years later for my 60th birthday, there’s still no broadband in Africa, but we can buy an RV, install a reliable mobile internet, and be able to work from anywhere as we travel the country. I would have never imagined myself going on such an adventure, but the reality of today’s technology makes the unimaginable possible.
When you start to see federal and state funding nearly double or triple, that's going to move a lot of mountains in terms of expanding this live-work-play flexibility to more homes where it can make a major difference. Thanks to the infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program is gearing up to disperse an initial $100 million to each state toward broadband deployment, with an emphasis on reaching underserved communities. The $14 billion Affordable Connectivity Program makes the previous Emergency Broadband Benefit for low-income households permanent, and providers will be required to offer affordable services. Broadband will bring opportunities for remote work, school, and telemedicine into these communities that can help close the socio-economic divide.
While some parties had their concerns, the bipartisan passing of the infrastructure bill and its inclusion of broadband expansion marks a historical turning point where everyone agrees - broadband is what this country needs to stay competitive. A February 2021 survey found three out of four Americans agreed that the internet is as important a service as electricity or water. Experts believe broadband should be offered as a public utility, and in one survey, a majority of network operators from all political parties - Democrat, Independent, and Republican - believed that communities should be allowed to offer municipal broadband.
In 2022, the question around fiber-optic broadband is no longer "if' - it’s "how." This is the year we define the rulebook on how to engage all these funds coming in. It will take cooperation, creativity, and a community effort, but from markets to governments, everyone is aligned in the mission to expand broadband access and has an incentive to collaborate, which should make for a pretty fun time to be in this industry. This year, a tsunami of fiber deployment will bring the future we’ve been waiting for but like nothing we’ve ever seen.
