If history is a guide, it takes about six years from first mention of a generation of mobile technology to when it becomes mainstream. And just like that, 5G is no longer the future. With 200-plus networks in service at the beginning of 2022, 5G has moved from lab to field to operational networks supporting billions of subscribers. With 5G firmly in the mainstream, expect the following trends to play out in 2022 and beyond.
#1: Open RAN Moves from Lab to Live
Seventy-seven percent of mobile operators plan to implement Open RAN as part of their 5G migration, GSMA Intelligence says. That aligns with the momentum we saw in the final few months of 2021, when VIAVI supported operator-run O-RAN labs in six countries. In these labs, critical work is already happening and will continue well into 2022. With non-traditional (as well as traditional) vendors now jostling to become part of the evolving O-RAN, testing for interoperability will be fundamental.
The work will continue in the labs, but increasingly, we’ll see operators go live with limited O-RAN pilots. With each new launch there will be fanfare, with operators and vendors proud of their achievement. If all goes well, it will be a year of celebration and expansion for the whole O-RAN ecosystem.
#2: Cloudification Puts the Spotlight on Service Assurance
Over the past several years, many operators began implementing SDN and NFV in a quest for greater operational flexibility and freedom from vendor lock-in. That evolution will continue in 2022, spurred by initiatives from organizations such as the O-RAN ALLIANCE and the Telecom Infra Project (TIP), as well as 3GPP Release 16.
But with freedom comes responsibility. Software-ization and cloudification mean operators no longer have a single “throat to choke.” They’re now more clearly in the driving seat for ensuring that this new multi-vendor, disaggregated environment can deliver the QoS and QoE that customers demand. As 5G networks now support billions of subscribers, service assurance will become a greater priority this year.
#3: C-band 5G Becomes Real … and So Does Disruption
As mobile operators begin to roll out 5G service in the C-band, the aviation industry and regulators have raised concerns about potential interference with radar altimeter (RADALT) systems, resulting in network deployments being delayed, and thousands of flights being canceled.
Any potential interference would occur in a very narrow band of radio frequency, one that is technically not even part of the C-band (3.7-3.98 GHz) being utilized by 5G. RADALT systems use the 4.2-4.4 GHz band. However, there is potential for interference from the edges of these bands, which can be mitigated by testing and adjusting both 5G networks and RADALT systems prior to live deployment. The communications and aviation industries and regulators need to implement rigorous verification and monitoring before networks and equipment are deployed.
#4: 5G and Fiber: Enemies or Frenemies?
By the numbers, 5G already outpaces fiber when it comes to global availability. Mobile operators never miss an opportunity to tout their 5G networks as a bridge across the digital divide.
Even so, it’s a mistake to view this as a zero-sum game, where one technology’s success comes at the other’s expense. Just the opposite: Whether it’s a macro site or small cell, each 5G base station needs fiber, which means more revenue for telcos and other fiber providers. Plus, every time it’s extended to serve a new 5G site, fiber also is now closer to more homes and business.
This synergistic relationship and its byproducts will accelerate in 2022 as operators flesh out their 5G coverage with infill and expansions. One of those byproducts is increased competition: To be viable as an alternative to fiber and copper — whether it’s for residential broadband or branch office SD-WANs — 5G must be ultra reliable. This hypercompetitive environment is another reason why mobile operators will make service assurance a top priority in 2022.
#5: The Edge Gets Edgier
As more mobile operators target the fixed broadband market, it will become yet another driver for edge computing, a trend that’s been underway for the past few years. For example, mobile operators can use edge computing to minimize both the latency and backhaul costs for their fixed wireless services. This directly benefits their competitive position because it maximizes QoE and drives savings that help them to price their fixed services competitively yet profitably.
In the enterprise market, 12 percent of mobile operators say edge computing is a primary 5G value proposition, according to GSMA Intelligence’s 2021 Enterprise Opportunity Survey. That’s the same percentage as private networking, where edge computing capabilities also are key for attracting and retaining customers. For example, many enterprises are focused on virtual private 5G, where they have a slice of a public network rather than owning a Core and RAN. In 2022, reliable, high-quality edge computing will be increasingly important for mobile operators targeting businesses that prefer the slice or hybrid deployment models for private 5G.
#6: Hello, 6G
With 5G now mainstream, it’s no surprise that planning for 6G has begun. We’re already hearing more about 6G on a daily basis, as industry leaders analyze learnings from current 5G deployments, share concepts for next-generation services and supporting network architectures, and plan for standards development.
