Despite the pandemic, the cancellation of the MWC and everything going topsy-turvy, 2020 has also been significant as the year of many firsts. The chief amongst them being Apple finally launching their first 5G iPhones. On a much smaller scale, Google also launched their own first 5G Pixel phones. With so many networks launching 5G networks, it’s just a matter of time before you see a 5G icon, expectedly or unexpectedly, on your smartphone.
When we made our 2020 predictions last year, we were optimistic many of them would probably come true. Actually, except for the MWC related predictions, nearly all of the others did come true. The fact that MWC had to be cancelled was something no one could have foreseen. We were so well prepared with our demos, meetings, press briefings and analyst events that this cancellation was a complete shock – 2020 was certainly a year no one could have predicted.
Continuing the annual tradition, here are our predictions for 2021. We have not added anything about MWC 2021. Even though we think the show will go ahead as an in-person event and we hope to be there too, there is still some uncertainty around it.
We have divided our predictions into different categories to make them easier to follow.
6G:
6G is expected to be rolled out in 2030, but there are predictions of it coming as early as 2028 and as late as 2032. Here is what we predict:
1. 6G hype will gain momentum with at least 50 events / conferences / webinars taking place: It is too early to say what and how 6G will look like, but this has not stopped people from talking about it. It will be the same next year but with a great deal more buzz around it.
2. We will see the first prototype of a 6G device: We will have a prototype using Terahertz frequency for communication that will be shown off as a 6G device.
3. We will see 6G trainings being launched, however brief they may be: Now is a good time for training companies to do some kind of a 6G overview trainings, so 2021 is probably the year this will come to fruition. We expect at least three 6G trainings to be launched.
5G:
Zahid Ghadialy,
Senior Director
Technology &
Innovation
Strategy
5G is now rolling out at full speed with many operators around the world making some or the other announcement. Most of the 5G deployments are Non-Standalone (NSA), but Standalone (SA) 5G networks are being rolled out as well. Here is what we predict:
4. Operators will continue to lose money with 5G, and at least one operator will publicly ask the vendors to stop the hype and start fixing the energy consumption issues.
5. The industry will start to recognize that Active Antennas are the most essential 5G component to deliver the 5G promises; the rest are either optional or just a distraction.
6. There will be at least 40 5G Standalone networks by the end of 2021.
7. At least one operator will provide a switch off date for Non-Standalone (NSA) 5G in 2023/24.
8. At least one operator will announce that they are not deploying NSA 5G, instead going directly to Standalone (SA) 5G.
9. New solutions for reducing power consumption in 5G networks will make a debut.
4G:
It’s been over 10 years since the rollout of the first 4G network, and 4G is being seen as an old legacy technology. The fact is that in many countries, 4G was rolled out in the last 5 years. There is still a lot of life left in 4G, and 4G will be the most popular technology worldwide in 2025. Here is what we predict:
10. 4G will continue to grow and be the driver for the growth and survival of the telecom industry for the foreseeable future.
Legacy 3G & 2G:
Shoddy journalism and vendor hype have given an impression that 2G/3G networks are being switched off in the next year or two. This is quite misleading, as many users worldwide are still heavily dependent on these legacy technologies. GSMA has consistently forecasted that 3G will be the most widely used technology in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2025. Here is what we predict:
11. 2G starts to gain prominence as 3G sunset gains momentum: This will again vary by region and operator, but this would be the macro trend globally.
12. More operators will start modernizing their 2G/3G infrastructure, mainly driven by the ambition to save power consumption in their networks: It should be noted that this is already going on but is expected to gain momentum.
Wi-Fi:
More traffic is carried over Wi-Fi than over cellular networks. The number is really big indoors where personal, or enterprise, Wi-Fi dominated. It is not insignificant outdoors either, with Wi-Fi hotspots continuing to increase worldwide. There are a few trends gaining momentum. The first being Wi-Fi 6 gaining popularity. This is being supported in some parts of the world with the release of new 6GHz spectrum, which can only be used by Wi-Fi 6 and future Wi-Fi technologies. 5G core enhancements in 3GPP Release-16 also allows Wi-Fi to work in tandem with 5G. Wireless Wireline Convergence (WWC) is also being heavily promoted by Broadband Forum (BBF). Here is what we predict:
13. At least 5 service providers (SPs) will announce that they are trialing Wireless Wireline Convergence (WWC).
14. More operators will launch VoWiFi solutions as they realize that Wi-Fi plays nicely in the long-term indoor coverage strategy.
15. Wi-Fi 6 adoption will start to grow exponentially.
Satellite Broadband:
As someone who has worked with the satellite industry closely in the past and is aware of its potential to connect the unconnected, I am delighted with the progress many of the mega constellations are making. It was never going to be easy in the short term, but at least it is closer to becoming a reality. Here is what we predict:
16. Satellite broadband based on LEO satellites becomes a commercial reality in 2021.
Open RAN/O-RAN:
As Open RAN leaders, we can write a whole set of predictions on Open RAN. This is exactly what my colleagues are doing. In the meantime, here are couple of high-level predictions tying in with what we have been talking about previously:
17. First Open RAN site with LEO satellite for backhaul is trialed with a commercial MNO: Satellites have been used for backhauling 2G/3G/4G sites for a very long time. Today, these are all mainly based on geostationary (GEO) satellites that are very far away and have a high latency. The low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites promise to reduce this latency significantly. There are many challenges that LEO satellites have yet to overcome, but that should not stop anyone from trying an Open RAN site with LEO for backhaul.
18. All G O-RAN Radios become a reality: We are starting to see 7.2 functional split based RRH for 4G and 5G. We believe that we will see all generations: 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G being enabled by the same 7.2 functional split RUs. This will be the catalyst that will enable many operators to go on the modernization drive for their networks.
Smartphones and Smart Feature Phones:
The fall in 5G chipset prices has surprised everyone. These lower prices will easily translate into lower-cost smartphones and other devices.
19. Cheaper sub $150 5G phones become reality: No surprises here as the industry and operators are trying to get 5G phones to as many consumers as they possibly can.
20. iPhone 12 will become the most popular iPhone ever sold: The main driver for this will be 5G and Wi-Fi 6 support that all models of iPhone 12 support.
21. First smartphones with geo-fencing for 2G/3G will be rolled out: 2G has the weakest security and could easily be hacked. While 3G improves on the security big time, it is no match for 4G/5G security. With 2G/3G geo-fenced, device security will be enhanced in a region or area. This can work well in markets that will only have 4G/5G going forward. We think the timing is right for a smartphone manufacturer to announce world’s first 2G/3G geo-fenced smartphone.
Let us know if you agree and what do you think?
